Pig price market: this week, the average price of meat pigs (average price of lean meat, Liangza and Tuza pigs) rose from 13.88 yuan/kg last week to 14.03 yuan/kg, up 11.67 percent from the same period last year. Lean pigs rose from 14.31 yuan/kg to 14.43 yuan/kg, Liangza pigs from 13.82 yuan/kg to 13.98 yuan/kg, and Tuza pigs from 13.5 yuan/kg to 13.68 yuan/kg. The national average price of piglets (the average price of Sanyuan and Liangza piglets) increased by 14.73 from 27.39 yuan/kg to 27.03 yuan/kg last week, up from 23.56 yuan/kg in the same period last year. The price of Sanyuan piglets dropped from 30.1 yuan/kg to 29.86 yuan/kg, and the price of Liangza piglets dropped from 24.68 yuan/kg last week to 24.2 yuan/kg, up 14.98 and 14.42 respectively. Reserve binary sow prices to 1592 yuan/head, up 8.8 YoY.

Viewpoint 1: Pig Price Trend in 7 Days of this Week: Shocks Rise to Around 14.5 Yuan/kg

This week 7 days the national pig market continued to maintain a volatile upward trend. Although there was a brief decline last weekend, as analyzed earlier, it still cannot change the general trend of shock rise. Last weekend, on May 31, the national average price of lean pigs fell to 14.25 yuan/kg. After entering this week, it continued to rise. It rose to 14.45 yuan/kg on June 3, and fell back to 14.39 yuan/kg on the 4th. It rose to 14.51 yuan/kg on the 5th, fell to 14.43 yuan/kg on the 6th, and rose to 14.51 yuan/kg again on the weekend of June 7. On June 7, 2014, the price of pigs reached about 13 yuan/kg, so the current year-on-year increase in pig prices remained above 10%.

Viewpoint 2: The fall in piglet prices is conducive to a benign shift in the pig market.

Since the pig market turned into a cyclical rising channel on March 18 this year, the slaughter price of lean pigs has risen from about 11.6 yuan/kg to the current 14.5 yuan/kg, with a cumulative increase of nearly 3 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase. About 10%. At the same time, the decline in the prices of the three major feed ingredients has jointly promoted the decline in total costs. Among them, the price of corn and soybean meal received by farmers decreased by 2.45 per cent and 21.76 per cent respectively compared with the same period last year, which together led to a decline of nearly 5 per cent in the feed for fattening pigs compared with the same period last year. The double benefit of rising pig prices and falling material prices is very conducive to the recovery of the pig industry.

However, due to the previous double positive greatly promoted the enthusiasm of piglets and sows to fill the column, so that the price of piglets gave birth to a certain bubble. Pig prices have just risen above the cost line, while piglet prices are much higher than the cost line, making the pig market briefly in a non-benign period with greater risk of replenishment. This week, the replenishment and prices of piglets have fallen, and they are becoming more rational. If this momentum can continue, the pig market can gradually change to a benign development.

As we all know, my country's pig industry is mainly composed of three structural models: self-breeding, professional sow breeding, and professional fattening pig breeding. For the overall healthy development, the distribution of benefits of the three must be reasonable. For example, if the price of piglets is too high, it will inevitably lead to the high cost of professional fattening pig breeding, and reduce the supplement. At the same time, the benefit of professional sow breeding is even higher than that of self-breeding. In the past month, the price of 3-yuan piglets weighing about 30kg has exceeded 500 yuan/head, and the average profit of selling a piglet's head is more than 200 yuan, while the slaughter price of lean meat type has just exceeded 7 yuan/kg, and the average profit of self-bred lean meat pig's head is only about 100 yuan.

The excessively high price of piglets not only erodes most of the profits of professional fattening pig breeding, but also causes the market risk of fattening piglets to be fattened. At the same time, it also leads to the high enthusiasm of sows to be fattened, and the turning point of sow stock comes ahead of schedule, thus reducing the duration of the cyclical rise period from the source, which is unfavorable to the long-term development of the whole pig market. Therefore, the decline in piglet prices is very conducive to the pig market in the original "pig price rise, material price drop" under the promotion of the gradual transformation to a healthy development.