(I) live chicken prices rise significantly
In the first half of this year, the ancestral chicken still continued to be introduced only a small amount, in recent years, after the introduction of limited production capacity decline gradually appeared, the stock of chicken is at a low level, the amount of chicken out of the column decreased. By the end of June, there were 54.82 million broilers on hand in the province, a decrease of 8.5 percent over the same period last year; in the first half of the year, 0.27 billion poultry were put on the market, an increase of 0.5 percent over the same period last year, and poultry meat production was 412000 tons, an increase of 0.6 percent. The decline in the number of chicken slaughter supported the rebound in chicken prices. At the end of June, the comprehensive selling price of chicken products was close to 10000 yuan/ton, up 13.6 percent from the same period last year. The price of chicken is 8.2 yuan/kg, up 24.2 percent from the same period last year. At present, the fencing of chicken seedlings is in the high temperature season in August. Farmers are not enthusiastic about filling the fencing. Broiler seedlings fell to about 2 yuan, down by 1.5 yuan.
(II) consumption remains weak
In the first half of the year, external shock factors weakened, especially no reported cases of human infection with H7N9, chicken consumption confidence and consumption environment improved, but pork prices hit a new low in nearly eight years, inhibiting chicken sales, chicken consumption is still at a low level. Monitoring showed that in the first half of the year, the trading volume of white striped chicken fell by 3.7, and the trading volume of pork increased by 8.4.
(iii) Rising farming profits
It is understood that the contract chicken price is stable and the profit is guaranteed. Among them, the recovery price per kilogram of Dacheng contract chicken is still maintained at 9.4 yuan, the recovery price of Huadu Company is 11.08 yuan, and each contract chicken can make a profit of 1.5~2 yuan. The profit of chickens in the market has increased, and the breeding and management are good. A broiler can make a profit of 3 to 4 yuan, an increase of about 1.5 yuan from the first quarter.
(IV) market forecast
The supply of commercial chicken seedlings is gradually reduced in the later period, and the shortage of supply will lead to an increase in the price of chicken. In addition, anti-dumping against imported chicken from Brazil and the Sino-US trade war will reduce the import of chicken products in the short term, which will benefit domestic chicken prices.