According to customs data, China's frozen beef imports continued to grow at a relatively fast pace in the first quarter of 2018, with a total import volume of 212000 tons, an increase of 32.2 percent. At the end of the cold fresh beef market, as far as conventional domestic fattening cattle are concerned, the national average price per kilogram rose to 26-27 yuan at the end of 2017 due to the shortage of cattle sources.
Large consumption, rising prices and large supply gaps will remain the main theme of China's cattle industry. Zhang Chunlei, technical director of beef cattle of Dakang Agricultural Group, said that at present, the domestic beef production capacity can not meet 50% of the market demand, and China's cattle industry is about to enter a new stage of extreme shortage of cattle sources, which is also a severe baptism and training for the whole industry.
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The gap between supply and demand is large, and imports are used to make up for it.
With the end of the Spring Festival consumption season in 2018, the price of domestic fattening cattle has fallen seasonally after March. Of course, this situation is very normal short seasonal fluctuations.
In an interview with reporters, Zhang Chunlei said straight to the point that in terms of the actual production of domestic beef cattle and the import of foreign beef and cattle by-products, the current price of Chinese beef cattle is by no means the highest point. In the future, the long-term price curve of the domestic beef cattle market will continue to rise, as the shortage of cattle sources and the large beef supply gap are increasing.
His view is supported by data. In late April 2018, the China Agricultural Outlook report (2018-2027) released at the China Agricultural Outlook Conference predicted that by 2027, China's beef production will reach 8.63 million tons and imports will reach 1.22 million tons, continuing to show a rapid growth trend.
Over the past decade, China's per capita beef consumption has maintained an average annual growth rate of 3%, rising from 4.35kg in 2006 to 5.25kg in 2014. The increase in consumption is mainly affected by the increase in per capita income and the upgrading of the consumption structure. The increase of per capita income, on the one hand, improves the consumption ability, on the other hand, makes people pay more attention to the diversity of consumption and the rationality of per capita structure, so as to stimulate the enthusiasm of consumption.